If media opinion is any indicator, then 2010 may well be the year of the eBook.

Everyone is talking about the flux in publishing industry and how it is going to change forever due to the digital media.  Reports about e readers and eBooks appear with increasing frequency. According to Mobiclix, the number of eBooks has surpassed games on Apple itunes store and Penguin has announced eBook sales four times higher than in 2008. eBook shipments are expected to  increase from 1 million units in 2008 to 78 million units in the next decade. Forrester predicts that USA will be the biggest market for eBooks. However, marketers know that countries like India and China will determine success.

India has a large English speaking population and its population of young literate readers is 333 million.

The Indian Book Publishing industry and book retailing business is estimated to be growing @10-30% per annum.

Keeping that in view the typical nature of the Indian market it is expected that the eBook business may not follow the same growth trajectory as in US or UK. There is a view that India and China may see eBook sales leapfrog as downloading eBooks on mobiles becomes a possibility, bypassing the need to have an eBook reader or even a lap top.

A 2008 estimate of Indian book publishing industry by industry analysts estimates a market size of Rs 10000 crores. As of now, eBooks account for only 1-2% of this market ( which translates to a present market size of  Rs 1-2 billion, ready to expand).

At a global level, publishers are still debating about the production costs and pricing of eBooks. An interesting read is the NYT  article Math of Publishing meets the eBook.

The article discusses the costs involved in producing printed books vs eBooks and why publishers have to share savings with consumers. However, the concerns about pricing of eBooks remain on top of the publishers list. Publishers don’t want the prices to go low because essentially eBooks translate only to savings in printing and logistics; all other costs remain the same.

The summary of facts presented in the article are:

*editors, managers, rentals to be further deducted

Apparently, there is marginal difference between net profits for publishers if they choose to publish low priced eBooks ( $4.46-5.54/ eBook)  instead of printed Books ($4.5/ book ). It is also believed that seventy percent of books published will make no money.

 The reality is that eBook pricing is dynamic and will stay low ($12-15) and economies like India and China will be leading markets.

Scribd has announced its ‘send to device’ feature that allows documents to be sent to any reading device. So, basically, it does not matter what device you read on. You can access Scribd content on mobile phones or e readers. This includes Kindle, nook, iPhones and Android powered phones.

As of now, this feature is available on 10 million documents on Scribd.

This presents a huge oppurtunity to publishers to reach a much larger customer base, without the digital device being a limiting factor.

Amazon launched its Kindle reader in India. It is estimated that Amazon has sold about 1000 readers in India since its quiet launch in October 2009. This has set the ball rolling for Indian players to launch their indigenous reader versions in the Indian market.

Cost of the eBook reader is an important criteria that will impact sales in India. The Indian consumer may prefer buying a laptop than an e reader. The e reader is still not in the must have accessory list for most Indians.

 The Kindle costs INR 18,000-20000. This includes import taxes and duties (estimated to be 30-40% of the cost) and shipment charges. With 3G stuck in red tape, how does one download the eBooks ‘wirelessly’?

 There is news of two Indian firms launching Indian e readers in the market. Infibeam’s Pi is in the market and EC media’s e-reader is set to hit the market soon.

 The comparative prices for some of the e readers in India are:

Kindle (Amazon): INR 18000+

Pi: INR 10000

E Reader (EC media): INR 8000-18000

As far as Kindle is concerned, Amazon has acknowledged that international consumers will pay more. For downloading eBooks you will need to connect to the internet to download files on your laptop and then transfer them to Kindle. There are varying projections about the exorbitant download costs to the international consumer as local networks will be charged by AT&T (which has a tie up with Amazon’s wireless Whispernet).

Check out Amazon’s wireless coverage map. Amazon claims that the direct download works with most GSM networks in India. I read somewhere that download charges in India are expected to be about INR 100 or more for using local mobile networks (no authentication available about this as yet).

Several publishers believe that users will prefer mobiles instead of dedicated readers. As a result, they are working on plans that ensure consumers are able to download and read their book on any platform. The big names that are focused on the mobile phone as a reading device include big wigs like Penguin, Simon & Schuster and Random House.

Promoting the same concept is Cell Stories, the brainchild of a Columbia Journalism school professor, who believes that Sony and Amazon have got the eBook reader fundamental all wrong. He believes that cell phones of today are devices for contemporary reading and his website is focused on providing stories for cell phones.

In India, RCOM decided to test readership of Pinki’s Virani’s new novel by delivering it through short messaging services (a total of 90 messages).  The company is in touch with publishers and it will be interesting to the see the response of Indian subscribers to this service.

At the global level, the battle between Apple’s Ipad and Amazon’s Kindle has just begun.  Deals with publishers are price wars are just beginning. Industry watchers believe that Amazon does have an edge over Apple due to its robust ecommerce platform.

The publishing industry is in a state of flux. Multiple devices and new improvisations are added every day. The challenge for publishers is to be able to deliver content through multiple channels.

The National Book Development Council of Singapore is organizing the Asian Festival of Children’s Content from 6-9 May, 2010 at the Arts House, Singapore.

The festival presents an oppurtunity to writers, illustrators, publishers and other media players to network, exchange ideas  and know how about writing, publishing and promoting Asian content for children worldwide.

Nearly 70 speakers from different countries including India are expected to participate in the festival. Indian speakers at the AFCC 2010 include Mita Kapur, Sayoni Basu, Atanu Roy, Paro Anand, Radhika Menon and Anushka Ravishankar.

The first ever youth readership survey by National Book Trust (NBT) and (National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has covered a youth population of 432 villages and 199 towns.

The survey was meant to understand the media consumption, reading habits and preferences of the literate Indian youth.

The survey estimates that India’s youth population (13-35 years) is about 459 million (2009). The literate youth population is 333 million.

Some interesting facts about how Indians read and get information:

1. Newspapers continue to be the prime source for local news and current affairs

2. The Internet is still in rudimentary stage as only 4% of the youth has access to it

3. Book readers (non syllabus) number around 83 million (25% of literate youth), of which 39 million are in urban areas and 44 million in rural India.

4. Hindi and English are preferred languages for non syllabi reading

There is talk about making all youth in the age group of 15-25 years an ‘Active Reader’ by the year 2025. There is a huge opportunity for publishers, even ePublishers in English and vernacular languages to cater to 333 million Indian youth.

Publishing your work as an eBook has its advantages:

Simpler & Quicker Process:

In the first place, the publishing process is simplified. If your work is good, you can self publish or select a good ePublisher-whatever suits you. You don’t need to run around from one publisher to another, where the possibility of getting rejected is high.  Needless to say you save on money and time.

 Cost Benefit

ePublishers do not have high printing costs to contend with and hence can accept many more works for publication.  

 Test the Market

Another advantage is that your ebook helps you test the market. Once you have a realistic assessment of the numbers, you can go ahead with conventional publishing.

 Worldwide Reach

Availability on the internet makes it easier to reach a wider audience. If you have the right publisher and your internet marketing and social networking is in place, you should have no worries.

 Let us not argue eBook Vs printed book.

Both the formats of the book will remain.

It will be ease of use and access that will determine popularity of the formats.

 Some factors that will drive eBooks:

•  More youngsters reading on screen with audio support
• Rising cost of the printed books
• Minimal storage space requirements
• Portability
• Changing reading habits
• Improved internet access