The article describes my vision of India in 2020.
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Author: Prateek Kakkar
WHY AT ALL A VISION STATEMENT IS NEEDED?
Every one whether in the individual capacity or in collective capacity or a country itself, every entity needs a vision statement, which motivates to get into a greater effort to put the things into one direction? In the context of individual, a vision statement helps in putting various endeavors in one direction to achieve goal or accomplish vision. In the context of a country, it helps in encompassing the role and responsibility of different agents in the economy, such as Central, State and local government, the private corporate sector, the small and tiny sector, people’s organizations etc. One has to identify the potential areas of strength building and indentify bottlenecks to take corrective measures in a focused manner.
It is clear, therefore, that to meet the objectives, a vision statement has to operate several levels of generality and specificity.
My plain vision statement of INDIA 2020- shall be “A fearless, strong, self reliant all rounder India”. I do compare India with a cricket player having all skills of the game to remain a match winner.
WHERE THE MIND WOULD BE WITHOUT FEAR
The following poem by the great poet Rabindranath Tagore adumbrates my insight of INDIA in 2020.
Where the mind is without fear and the head is held high.
Where the knowledge is free
Where the world has not been broken up into fragments
By narrow domestic walls
Where the words come out from the depth of truth
Where the tireless striving stretches its arms towards the perfection
Where the clear stream of reason has not lost its way
Into the dreary desert sand of dead habit
Where the mind is led forward by Thee
Into ever-widening thought and action
Into that heaven of freedom, my Father, let my country
After the decades of sufferings and humiliation in the hands of terrorism, I see people of India would be living a fearless and a peaceful life by the year 2020. By that time Indo Pakistan issues will get settled and they will not look at each other as enemies. If not all, an average Indian would cherish and live a successful quality life. People of India would feel safe and secure in their prosperous motherland physically, economically and from any kind of discrimination. India would grow secular with the time and education spreading in streets and corners of the country. No social discrimination and no reservation shall be the talk of era around 2020. India would develop in science and technology and reliance on import of technology would reduce minimal. As a result India would be able to build up year after year its military power to protect its sovereignty. Once the military power is displayed to the world, it would be free of any external threats. Within the homeland, the law enforcing agencies like police and allied forces shall adopt the latest gadgets to attack offenders and hence the crime will reduce and people would feel secure and safe with presence of strong protectors. The stricter domestic laws and its enforcement would ensure reduced crime rate / criminal acts in the society.
AND THE HEAD WOULD BE HELD HIGH
The effulgent India would be in the hands of youth who seek pride and honor to serve their motherland. Citizens from any profession would be ready to take individual initiatives to expunge any negativities persisting in the society. They would feel happy in giving back something to their nation. The Brain Drain would reduce to a great extent as they will find India a better place to establish themselves. When Indian youth would take on the politics, the corruption would be in dictionary not in practice.
WHERE THE KNOWLEDGE WOULD PROFUSE
Government will create high standard institutes / schools / colleges, a large number of IITs and research establishments that would be able to provide high quality education. The admission to high quality institutes will not be as competitive as it is today. There will be a remarkable change in the education system.
A free flow of knowledge is the base of a free and prosperous nation. Knowledge may be in terms of education, technology and access to wide range of information which is a catalyst for individuals and national progress.
India in next decade would develop to a great extent and individual would get opportunities in abundance. Students now abhor the idea of going abroad to establish themselves. With modernization of education in India, the mode of instruction and learning will change miles. I see students carrying laptops instead of the traditional 3-5Kg schoolbags surfeited with different books, overloading their tender shoulders. The literacy rate would reach nearly 100% mark giving abundant talent to India. India would become bank of Educated and skilled Human Resource ready for export to other countries.
WHERE THE INDIAN STATES WOULD SUFFICE EACH OTHER
The free flow of trade, capital, technology, information within Indian states would make each and every state of India a prosperous place to live in. We don’t see any biases on the basis of caste, religion or region. The proverb “UNITY IN DIVERSITY” will be proven again. Everyone wants to live together and the man made barriers are of no significance. The nation stands united in times of adversities to help their fellow-countrymen. They amplify their happiness in being together and share each others’ grievances.
WHERE THE WORDS WOULD COME OUT FROM THE DEPTH OF TRUTH
The whole system will work with integrity, honesty and trustworthiness which would be the building blocks of a healthy democracy and prosperous nation. The citizens will not be fleeced by the government and amongst themselves. There will transparency, accountability and reliability in the decisions taken by the government of India for its people. The governance by political system is working towards nation’s interest in a true sense. People will respect their leaders which would be a stark contrast to the present scenario.
WHERE TIRELESS STRIVING STRETCHES ITS ARMS TOWARDS PERFECTION ……WHERE THE MIND IS LED FORWARD BY THEE INTO EVER WIDENING THOUGHT AND ACTION….
The budding entrepreneurs would be assiduously providing solutions to the society. The ardent human efforts would have augmented the rate of technological advancement and production in India leading to a prosperous and a self-content nation. Education, innovation, creativity would ultimately be driving forces for the continuous advancement of scientific knowledge and material accomplishment. I would like to see India as the world’s richest country. Large Number of Successful business ventures would be emanating in India. There would be more like Tatas, Birlas and the Ambanis.
With advent of latest hybrid cars in 2008 which run on renewable sources of energy I expect them to be ubiquitous throughout India by 2020. The private vehicles running on petrol and diesel would be banned and the present filthy / polluted environment will be free of poisonous gases.
THE INFRA STRUCTURE WOULD DEVELOP IN PACE WITH URBANIZATION
The cities would be so well planned that congestion and bottle-necks shall not exist at all. The well laid network of luxurious public transport system would be developed and remarkably curtail the amount of individual vehicles running on road. The authorities will revamp the driving license system and driving education shall be the part of curriculum as personal vehicle shall be the asset of each Indian. The people will have a good driving sense. The vehicle will ply noise less as everyone will remain in his/her lane.
Express roads shall connect the satellite towns with main cities so much so that people in place of migrating to the big cities would stay in the small towns itself without posing pressure on the infrastructure.
E-GOVERNANCE WILL CHANGE THE PUBLIC DEALING
Computers shall permeate into offices of Government. These will not be a place of files laying pell-mell neither it would be a breeding place for rats. The e-governance would have replaced the typical red-tapism. Government offices will work swiftly and with pace similar to those in private sector. Government will perform like a company. Computerization in government offices would change the ways records are kept in unimaginable manner at present. One wouldn’t be required to bribe a government servant to get the records to the table of officials for action on his/her application. We wouldn’t witness any strike. The employees would be respected and given the deserving remuneration.
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
India has become the leader in the field of sciences, be it the space sciences, the nuclear sciences etc. The young technocrats and astro-scientists are joining organizations like ISRO instead of NASA making their own country proud. Successful missions like the recent Chandrayaan are witnessed. Even the advanced defence equipments are being manufactured in India. India would not grovel to any foreign nation for its weaponry.
With the signing of nuclear deal I would love to see nuclear fuel enlightening the houses throughout India.
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
I see India gaining further supremacy in agriculture field too. Commercial crops, agri-business, Food processing industries would revolutionize the Indian agriculture by 2020. Farmers would don’t commit suicide due to debt. Government would develop waste land for agriculture and forestation that will generate employment for the rural areas.
HEALTH PLAN AND HEALTH SERVICES DEVELOPMENT
India has already started showing its enduring skills in medical field. People are reckoning the Indian Potential in medication and treatment. Year after year, foreign national are flocking this country for cheap and good treatment. I believe in what we have shown to the world in IT services, we will dominate the medical science too by the year 2020. Indian doctors have great abilities and will contribute to this country an important foreign revenue and hence nation building / economy lifting.
EMPOWERING WOMAN
Government in last 60 years of freedom has done considerable for the Harijans, caste and community disparities that existing earlier by providing reservation to the under privileged. Now it is turn of women. A woman plays vital role in a family. She makes and nourishes family. She can play a similar role in nation building too. I believe, Government will provide a share of power through reservation to women and by the year 2020, contribution of women in nation building will be visible to the world. Women in power will eradicate corruption, will bring endurance and discipline in lives of common Indian.
DEVELOPMENT OF TELECOM SERVICES
Information flow plays a vital role in development. By the year 2020, development on telecom front will be enormous. Every house will have telephone and every individual will carry a mobile. Internet availability will be cheaper the gadgets like cell phone, laptop and computer will permeate every aspect of Indian life.
SPORTS DEVELOPMENT
By 2020, India would have developed its infrastructure to an extent that it has become a favorite venue for hosting games like commonwealth, Asian games, World Cups etc. I would like to see India excel not only in cricket but also in its national game Hockey, tennis, shooting, athletics etc. We would be acing in terms of winning medals in Olympics. Sports has flourished itself as an entertainment industry.
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Comments:
{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }
The article as such is thought provoking. It gives a vision of a prospoerous country. You can make improvements in your style – maybe shorten the article and highlight only certain areas. It is way too long and makes the reader lose interest half way through. Check out for wrong usgae – ex ” enlightening the houses etc.
India as a “Developed Nation”
Meaning:
This Research Report focuses on the concept of India as a Developed Nation by 2020
What is the meaning of a Developed Nation and does India has the potential in it to become one?
The report from hereon focuses on a number of parameters that define a Developed Country and other allied parameters detailing India’s potential place on the Global stage by the year 2020.
This entire program revolves around the studies concerning how India could transform herself as a “Developed Nation” by 2020
The Inception:
This so called Mission was floated during the tenure of our former President APJ Abdul Kalam. What inspired me therein was an inert desire to know as to what this mission was all about and as to how this could be accomplished?
With time, I started pondering into this subject. I wanted to know as to where we were currently and what potentially had to be done to become a developed nation by 2020.
My primary focus was economics. But as time passed, I started pondering into a number of other allied subjects
Herein as well. I was keen to know that objective parameter that would be the defining line between the League of Nations.
Objective and Subjective Nature:
But to my surprise, after extensive and in depth research, I found that this entire matter was of subjective nature. In Actuality there was no said parameter in statistical terms to classify countries as developed, developing or underdeveloped.
Let us get to understand this little better:
What makes a Country Developed?
When you generally ponder over what makes a country developed and others not, some of the general agreed parameters would be like:
A country with very less poverty
A country with high per Capitai GDP
A Country that is technologically advanced
A Country with good Infrastructure etc etc.
In all these above terms, India seems to be lagging behind the so called developed nations. But, there is a need to look in depth into this matter. A need to analyze all the above said pointers and even other such potential pointers that may be contributing to this entire theory.
The Prime Aspects:
POVERTY:
Let Us now look at the aspect of poverty:
Definition:
In India, Conventionally, People unable to afford the basics of life such a food, clothing and shelter are considered as poor. What is to be noted here is that the definition of
Poverty greatly differs from country to country and as such there is no uniform definition as such for the same globally.
When we try to express the nutritional requirement in monetary terms, then according to the government of India:
Monetary Expression:
In the ’70s, when our governments first began using this definition, the monthly cost of the “basket of food” required to supply these nutritional levels was calculated to be Rs 62 in rural areas, and Rs 71 in urban areas. With inflation, those numbers rose to Rs 328 and Rs 454 respectively, by the year 2000.
Census Statistics:
To add on as per the above definition based on the nutritional requirement, our poverty level as on 1999-2000 was 26.1% which further declined to 20.8% in 2004-05
Link: http://www.expressindia.com/news/fullstory.php?newsid=83409
Some estimates all project that, with the current rate of economic growth, India may well be able to completely eradicate poverty by 2020.
However again, the definitions for poverty differ across nations.
Poverty Statistics in America:
In the USA, for example, the minimum parameter for poverty for 2011 was set at $17,761 (total yearly income) for a family of four.
This roughly sums up 4440$ a year per individual and about 12$ on a daily basis.
But there are certain interesting points to be noted over here. According to some estimates the poverty rate was around 13.2% in 2008
Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/09/10/us-usa-economy-poverty-idUSTRE58943C20090910
But this does not mean that all those covered under this measure of poverty are necessarily only those who earn below the stipulated 17761$ a year for family of four.
Food Insecurity in USA:
According to some estimates, close to 50 million Americans are food insecure. In other words, they don’t find enough money to buy adequate food on a daily basis.
Link: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1330254/50MILLION-Americans-starve-Wall-Street-executive-pay-rockets.html
That translates to almost 16.66% of American population. Thus, even though the definition might seem slightly skewed, the reality is much different.
Absolute Poverty Rates in UK:
The case seems pretty similar in case of other so called “developed nations” too. The case of Food Insecure Households is prevalent even in UK.
Link: http://www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId=80441&CultureCode=en
Moreover according to one report five million people in UK were reported to be living in absolute poverty with inability to access basics of life like food, water and shelter
Link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/1207241.stm
Hence, whether the poverty level is defined by nutritional intake or annual earnings or by any other means, the actual state of poverty looks pretty much on similar lines across nations.
And going by our annual growth rate, we may well be in a comfortable situation by the end of this decade in the context of poverty and on real terms, our society may be more prosperous if not more than others.
GDP per Capitai:
A Contentious Issue:
The Topic of GDP seems very contentious. Not Because of any inherent fault in the concept as such but in the manner and ease in which it is used and thrust upon other allied concepts.
Let us look into the matter a little more in depth.
GDP refers to the sum total value of all goods and services produced within the boundaries of a particular country in a particular financial year.
There are three different methods of calculating GDP as well:
Income Approach
Expenditure Approach and
Output Approach
The values therein may differ only marginally. But the major glitch is with the aspect of GDP per Capitai.
In effect, when the GDP of a country is divided by its population, we derive GDP per Capitai.
If the GDP per Capitai of a country turns out to be 5000$, it does not necessarily mean that all the people in that country make 5000$ annually as income.
Income Inequality:
Income Inequality is a bitter reality and is existence almost in all countries. In some countries it is larger than others.
GINI Index:
One of the credible measures to measure income inequality in the GINI Index. The Gini coefficient is a measure of statistical dispersion developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper “Variability and Mutability”
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient
In simple words Gini coefficient is a measure of the inequality in the distribution of Income and Wealth.
Income and Wealth Distribution in USA:
Income Distribution:
The top 1% or the top 10% of the population often hold a substantially large part of National income than the bottom 1% or bottom 10%.
For example in USA top 0.01% — that’s one-hundredth of one percent — received 6% of all U.S. wages, the top 10% received 49.7% compared with the 3.4% earned by the roughly 15% of the population living below the poverty line.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_inequality_in_the_United_States
Link: http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html
Wealth Distribution:
When it comes to the aspect of wealth distribution, it’s even worse. The Top 20% of Americans own roughly 85% of all Wealth.
Link: http://articles.latimes.com/2010/nov/08/opinion/la-oe-norton-wealth-inequality-20101108
And the bottoms 40% of Americans not only have no assets, but also have negative wealth.
Thus clearly, the concept of dividing the entire national income or wealth by the population does not seem to aptly reflect upon the actual ground scenario.
Markets for Business/ the Rich or the Upper Class:
Why do all Top End Exclusive Brands and Luxury products find their Market in India too? For the very same Reason. Even here, the concentration of wealth is in the hands of a chosen few who are willing to spend on these niche products.
From a Business perspective, all these High End firms find India and other such nations too as profitable destinations. At times they find these locations even more profitable than the west itself. This is in relation to the top end of the population.
Even at the bottom end, when we compare poverty statistics across nations, the bottom rug of the population as mentioned above seems to be doing fairly well in comparison to other countries.
The Middle Class:
Now the middle class. India has a huge and growing middle class population. In fact for a number of other Multi nationals, it is this middle class that is their main revenue generating market. From a business perspective, the Rich and middle class of India are as comparable to any other country. But again, in terms of actual numbers, incomes differ here as well. Those on USA or UK earn a lot more than those in India. The concept of purchasing power parity narrows this gap to an extent.
Ascertaining Actual Well Being/Lower Class:
But Beyond all this, one has to be clear that this concept of GDP per Capitai as such may not be very appropriate measure to ascertain the actual well being of the population.
Even within these realms, if a country is able enough to ensure that its population is able to afford the basics like nutritious food, clothing and good shelter, it can be considered to be a mature state from the aspect of handling the bottom rug of the population.
The rest depends on how the middle class and the rich of the country aid in economic participation and growth and as to how Businesses view them from the context of its revenue generation ability. In any other context monetary numbers for comparison may only throw vague upper limits and may not necessarily result in any concrete solutions as a result of their own levels of income and wealth.
Wage Levels as a Measure:
In the final phase of this discussion, let us look into corporate wage levels as a measure.
India has been witnessing an average annual salary hike to the tune of around 15% since many years now
Link: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/india-retains-top-spot-in-salary-growth/274742/
What this means is that an employee earning an average of around 20000Rs a month say in 2008, may very well end up earning close to 5-6 times that amount by 2020 given the rate of salary hike witnessed by corporate India.
And nowadays, for any average Engineer or MBA the salary levels are much higher than that 20000Rs a month amounting.
The Return of the NRIs:
Thus in the coming years, we may well see a number of Expats and NRIs to work in India.
Moreover, according to studies, the Number of NRIs returning back to India is gaining momentum. According to some estimates, in 2010 alone close to 60000 Indian Americans returned to India from US alone.
This Amount was much higher than the total H1B visas issued to Indians the same year.
Link: http://www.nriworld.in/nri/1707-over-60-000-indian-professionals-return-home-from-us
Link: http://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/Over-50-US-green-card-holders-yahoofinancein-3825469819.html
Rise in Expat Population:
Not Just this. Some Studies also claim that Europeans and Americans will come to India in search of work in Future as well.
Link: http://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/Reverse-brain-drain-rule-pti-3670049186.html
In sum, all the above mentioned parameters indicate the extent to which the actual scenario of income on ground is going to have an impact in future.
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT:
Current State of Technological Development:
Scientific and Technical Manpower:
When the topic comes to the aspect of technologically advanced nations, India already is not lagging far behind. India has a large pool of scientific and technical manpower and is ranked among the top 5 nations in terms of its pool of qualified scientific and technical manpower.
Link: http://www.rxpgnews.com/worldnews/India_all_set_to_become_planet_s_knowledge_hub_3187_3187.shtml
Quick Statistics of State of Technological Development:
Apart from this India has made tremendous strides in terms of scientific achievements too.
Nuclear Weapon State:
It’s the sixth country in the world to test a Nuclear Weapon
Space Technology:
It’s the sixth country globally to fabricate and launch its own satellites in geo-stationary orbit
Software Industry:
The share of software sector as a percentage of India’s total exports stands at 25% and is expected to nearly quadruple in the next 10 years.
Link: http://hello.news352.lu/edito-19457-india-s-software-exports-face-protectionism.html
Link: http://thetechjournal.com/internet/india-to-become-software-superpower-by-2020.xhtml
Super Computers:
India is the third nation in the world to build its own super computer Indigenously
Link: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-05-02/news/29496178_1_fastest-supercomputer-petaflops-teraflops
Indigenous Fighter Aircrafts:
India is among the handful of nations to build an indigenous supersonic fighter aircraft named Tejas
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAL_Tejas
GSLV Satellites:
India is among the few countries of the world to have the ability to launch GSLV Satellite
Ballistic Missile Technology:
India is among the few countries which have developed Ballistic Missiles Indigenously
Link: http://www.thecolorsofindia.com/interesting-facts/science-and-technology/index.html
Automobile Industry:
> India is the 7th largest country by Motor Vehicle Production.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production
Medical Tourism:
India ranks 2nd in terms of medical tourist arrivals and with an annual growth rate of around 30%, it may well be the top medical tourist destination of the world in future.
Link: http://www.merinews.com/article/medical-tourism-india-ranks-second/15762192.shtml
Link: http://www.medikonnect.in/%28S%28sonw2y55rchjde55j5cy3zmh%29%29/HTML/why-india.html
Link: http://www.medicaltourismco.com/medical-tourism/medical-tourism-india-hospitals-in-india/
The list for technological advancement may go on and on from here. The above list is just Illustrative and not Exhaustive.
WORLD CLASS INFRASTRUCTURE:
The Current State:
Infrastructure is the other main pointer that I have stated as a characteristic of a developed nation. Undoubtedly, India as on date is lagging way behind other nations on this parameter. And with the current state of Infrastructure, it will be fair to say that it will take a long time before the country joins the league of developed countries.
Planned Future Investments:
But from a future standpoint, things may not really seem that bleak. According to some reports, the planning commission has a target of $1 trillion in infrastructure investments in the 11th five year plan beginning 2012.
Link: http://www.deccanherald.com/content/132649/india-targets-1-trillion-infrastructure.html
Ports:
Let us look in depth into certain key infrastructure sectors:
Ports: The total Investment in ports is expected to be close to 2.77 lakh crore by 2020. This would be significant increase in the handling capacity of ports therein.
Link: http://www.indiareport.com/India-usa-uk-news/latest-news/1032646/Madhya0/4/31/4
Airports:
Airports: There are plans to develop close to 500 airports by 2020. This would make Air travel accessible to a number of remote places of the country
Link: http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/sectorsaviation/India-plans-to-have-500-airports-by-2020/Article1-273966.aspx
Link: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/12/14/336049/india-estimates-120-billion-in-aviation-investment-by.html
Roadways:
Roadways: Roadways can be primarily categorized into:
The Golden Quadrilateral:
> The Golden Quadrilateral: As of 31st march 2011, of the total highway length of 5846 km, a total of 5821 km i.e. 99.62% of the highway work was completed.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Quadrilateral
North South East West Corridor:
North South East West Corridor: As of 31st March 2011, of the 7300 km highway network, a total of 5622 km i.e. 77.01% of the work was completed.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North%E2%80%93South_and_East%E2%80%93West_Corridor
According to Mr. Kamal Nath, the union minister for Road Transport and highways from May 2009 till January 2011, India would start building 20 km of road network a day from April 2010.
Link: http://www.zopag.com/news/india-to-start-building-20-km-roads-day-by-april-nath/12281.html
This kind of statistics should be sufficient enough to meet the National Highway development goals in timely manner
Pradahn Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna:
PMGSY: The Pradahn Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna envisages connecting every village and remote part of the country through all whether roads and is slated to be completed by 2017.
Link: http://www.projectsmonitor.com/MISC/the-road-to-rural-india
Link: http://india.gov.in/sectors/rural/pradhan_mantri.php
Railways:
Indian Railways too has a vision for 2020. Announced in December, Vision 2020 is the blueprint for unprecedented investment in the network over the next 10 years. In addition to the extra 25,000km of new lines that will take the network total to 89,000km, the Vision calls for 12,000km of double and multiple track additions for a total of 30,000km nationwide, and an extra 14,000km of lines to be electrified for a total of 33,000km by the end of the decade.
Maximum speeds will also be increased from 110-130km/h to 160-200km/h for passenger trains, and from 60-70km/h to more than 100km/h for freight services. Double-deck trains and modern dmus and emus will be introduced on the network which will include four new high-speed lines that will accommodate trains capable of reaching speeds of 250-330km/h.
Link: http://www.railjournal.com/news-extra/vision-2020-a-new-dawn-for-india-s-railways.html
Clean Drinking Water:
Under Swajaldhara Scheme, the government envisages to provide clean drinking water to all villages in the country by 2009.
Link: http://www.brijj.com/group/water-supply-sewerage-drainage-grou–discussionboard–Drinking-Water-Quality-In-Rural-India?eid=403125
Link: http://www.brijj.com/group/water-supply-sewerage-drainage-grou–discussionboard–Drinking-Water-Quality-In-Rural-India?eid=403125
Sanitation Facilities:
Total sanitation campaign was launched in 1999 with the sole objective of eradicating open defecation by 2010. As of 2008 590 districts were covered by this scheme.
Link: http://ddws.nic.in/tsc_index.htm
Link: http://www.businessworld.in/bw/2010_05_29_Indias_Toilet_Revolution.html
Electricity:
In December 2010, the installed power generation capacity of India stood at 165,000 MW [9] and per capita energy consumption stood at 612 kWh
According to a research report published by Citigroup Global Markets, India is expected to add up to 113 GW of installed capacity by 2017. Further, renewable capacity might increase from 15.5 GW to 36.0 GW.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_India#cite_note-14
Rajiv Gandhi Gramin Vidyutikaran Yojana:
Under this scheme, the government envisages to provide all the villages in the country access to Electricity by 2009.
Link: http://pmindia.nic.in/speech/content.asp?id=92
Link: http://www.powermin.nic.in/whats_new/pdf/Rajiv_gandhi.pdf
The above list is all again Illustrative than being Exhaustive. The above list provides a jest about the infrastructure developments that India is poised to experience in the coming years up to 2020.
Defining a Developed Nation:
While researching on the concept of a “Developed Country”, I came across an interesting article that demonstrated the extent of subjectivity that surrounded this subject as such.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Developed_country
Claim by the United Nation Statistics Division:
The United Nation Statistics Division Claims that
“There is no established convention for the designation of “developed” and “developing” countries or areas in the United Nations system”
Link: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49regin.htm#ftnc
It further notes that:
“The designations “developed” and “developing” are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgment about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process”
Statement in Wikipedia:
The Article Titles “Developed Country” in wikipedia denotes that:
“The term developed country is used to describe countries that have a high level of development according to some criteria. Which criteria and which countries are classified as being developed, is a contentious issue and is surrounded by fierce debate”
It also further went on to quote that:
“One such criterion is income per capita; countries with high gross domestic product (GDP) per capita would thus be described as developed countries. Another economic criterion is industrialization; countries in which the tertiary and quaternary sectors of industry dominate would thus be described as developed. More recently another measure, the Human Development Index (HDI), which combines an economic measure, national income, with other measures, indices for life expectancy and education has become prominent. This criterion would define developed countries as those with a very high (HDI) rating. However, many anomalies exist when determining “developed” status by whichever measure is used.”
Probable Parameters:
GDP per Capitai:
Now, the concept of GDP per Capitai has been discussed above previously.
Tertiary and Quaternary Sectors:
When it comes to the aspect of tertiary and quaternary sectors of industry, India’s achievements in the software sector are evident to its stature herein. India is considered as the future knowledge hub of the planet as well as the next software superpower.
Link: http://nvonews.com/2010/09/08/india-marching-towards-global-knowledge-hub/
Link: http://www.rediff.com/money/2003/dec/06hub.htm
Link: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2010-03-14/news/27571830_1_software-market-superpower-infrastructure
Industrialization:
When it comes to the aspect of industrialization too, India is already considered to be among the top 10 industrialized nations of the world.
Link: http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/india-in-top-10-industrial-nationsbehind-china/430282/
Human Development Index:
Now what remains to be seen here is the aspect of Human Development Index.
What is Human Development Index?
Definition:
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite statistic used to rank countries by level of “human development” and separate “very high human development”, “high human development”, “medium human development”, and “low human development” countries. The Human Development Index (HDI) is a comparative measure of life expectancy, literacy, education and standards of living for countries worldwide.
Origin:
The origins of the HDI are to be found in the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Reports. These were devised and launched by Pakistani Economist Mahbub ul Haq in 1990 and had the explicit purpose ‘‘to shift the focus of development economics from national income accounting to people centered policies’’.
During the course of my research, I realized that out of the potential objective parameters, Human Development Index was considered as one of the probable.
I conducted my own in depth Research on the same. In fact, all the three parameters considered within HDI were found questionable at a personal level by me.
Let us look in Detail:
Flaws in the Parameters considered within HDI:
The three main parameters considered herein are mainly:
> Life Expectancy
> Literacy Rate
> Per Capitai Income (To Measure standard of living)
Let us analyze each of these individual parameters one by one.
Life Expectancy:
Life expectancy is the expected (in the statistical sense) number of years of life remaining at a given age
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy
Life expectancy is calculated considering a number of factors like Background, Height and weight, Educating, Smoking habits etc. There are some subtle factors too which at a personal level, I believe contribute to life expectancy.
These are factors like Quality of life, Mental Health etc. These subjective factors are often far more difficult to calculate than age, height, weight or education.
Let us look at some of the statistics.
45% of New Marriages are predicted to end in divorce as per the Daily Mail of UK
Link: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-547468/45-cent-new-marriages-doomed-end-divorce.html
Divorce is more often than not likely to set in depression. And the result, it considerably affects the Mental Health. Studies have found that Mental Ill die 25 years earlier on Average.
Link: http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2007-05-03-mental-illness_N.htm
The above was an Illustration to prove how certain subtle factors can affect the aspect of life expectancy that are often hard to calculate and do not reflect the actual ground reality.
Hence, Life expectancy can only be considered as an indicator whose accuracy remains to be subjected to further studies and analysis.
In the above case when we talk about a population of a large proportion (45%), it is hard to ignore the impact that these subtle activities have on the actual state of life expectancy.
Other similar factors can be smoking, Excessive Alcohol Consumption, Substance Abuse like Drug usage etc.
Literacy:
By definition, an Individual who has the ability to read and write is called as a literate.
Link: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Definition_of_literacy_rate
By this definition, India’s literacy rate as per the 2011 census is 74.04%
Link: http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110331/jsp/frontpage/story_137903010.jsp
The reason why I find literacy rate flawed is because; the difference in literacy across nations is not really that huge.
From a Human Development Perspective, it is imperative to understand the actual benefits that an individual or society derives out of the same.
Firstly, the extent to which the literacy skills of an individual enable him to improve his quality of life is questionable. Education is different from literacy. An individual who has attained certain degree of formal education like primary, secondary schooling, degree or professional qualification stands a much better chance to improve his lifestyle than an individual with mere capabilities to read and write.
Moreover, there is a concept of hidden literacy that persists in the west. Herein, people have some level exposure to reading and writing skills but are functionally illiterate.
Functional illiteracy:
Functional illiteracy is a term used to describe reading and writing skills that are inadequate “to manage daily living and employment tasks that require reading skills beyond a basic level
In the United States, according to Business magazine, an estimated 15 million functionally illiterate adults held jobs at the beginning of the 21st century.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Functional_illiteracy
Statistics for certain cities:
Philadelphia:
According to some reports the adult functional Illiteracy of the city is 22%
Link: http://temple-news.com/2009/01/20/literacy-rates-challenge-philadelphia/
Los Angeles
Fifty-three percent of working-age Los Angeles County residents have trouble reading street signs or bus schedules, filling out job applications in English or understanding a utility bill.
Link: http://articles.latimes.com/2004/sep/09/local/me-literacy9
Chicago:
37% of Adults in Chicago have low literacy rates.
Link: http://www.care2.com/causes/education/blog/fighting-chicagos-53-illiteracy-rate-what-does-it-take/
Detroit:
47% of metro Detroiters are reportedly functional illiterate.
Link: http://www.detroitliteracy.org/faq.htm
National Adult Literacy Survey:
In their 1993 report on the National Adult Literacy Survey, the US Department of Education identified a class of adults who although they do not meet criteria for functional illiteracy, nonetheless face reduced job opportunities and life prospects due to inadequate literacy levels relative to the requirements of contemporary society
The study detailed the percentages of U.S. adults who worked full-time, part-time, were unemployed, or who had given up looking for a job and were no longer in the work force. The study also reported the average hourly wages for those who were employed. These data were grouped by literacy level — how well the interviewees responded to material written in English — and indicated that 40 million to 44 million of the 191 million U.S.
adults (21% to 23% of them) in the least literate group earned a yearly average of $2,105 and about 50 million adults (25% to 28% of them) in the next-least literate of the five literacy groups earned a yearly average of $5,225 at a time when the U.S. Census Bureau considered the poverty level threshold for an individual to be $7,363 per year.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy_in_the_United_States
Literacy and Income Inequality:
This also states one more concept clearly. The Concept relating to income inequality in the USA. The concept of GDP per Capitai could also well align with the same. The fundamental point here is, the correlation expressed above between Literacy and Income is an indicator of the potential earnings of a last proportion of Americans though the same may not be expressly accurate. Keeping the same in
Mind the case against the concept of GDP per Capitai could be further strengthened.
Functional Illiteracy in UK:
According to an article carried by BBC almost 20% of UK’s adult population is Illiterate.
Link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/811832.stm
So, based on all the above mentioned, there is a serious need to:
> First, Look into the need for considering exact level of literacy or education rate of the population
> Secondly, There is a need to Re-Assess the Human Development Index on the lines of the actual state of Functional and Hidden Illiteracy rates of different countries
Thus, even Literacy cannot be considered as an accurate parameter in this context.
Obsolete Nature of HDI:
The Third Aspect of Human Development Index i.e. the per Capitai income or the GDP per Capitai has already been mentioned earlier.
Need for Reassessing HDI:
Thus, based on all the above stated, the need to reassess Human Development Index as a concept itself is a pressing issue and thus considering HDI as on of the probable parameters to classify countries as Developed, Developing or Underdeveloped again seems out of sync and obsolete.
Perception Driven Statures:
To Summarize, Based on all of the above stated, it is clear that this entire subject is of subjective nature and not of objective nature. The
Concept of Developed or Developing Countries is based on the perceptions of people or government as do not necessarily have any statistical backing to their claims.
Case of USSR as an Example:
Even the USSR might have once been perceived as developed country. But today, the Russian Federation is a member of the BRICS whose members in general are regarded as Developing Nations.
India by 2020:
Going forward, let us say by the year 2020, with an average annual Economic growth rate of 8-10%, our position on the global stage is likely to get much stronger and we may well be perceived to be in the league of front nations or “superpowers” along with other nations like Russia, China, USA, Brazil and European Union.
Caution Notes:
Economic Reforms:
Hence, over time with the current state of Economic Growth and reforms, in this conventional Context, India can well be regarded as a Developed Country by 2020.
Differing Perceptions of Individuals:
But Perceptions differ. Thus, since this matter is of subjective nature, the perceptions of some or the other individuals on one or the other count may differ about our country’s stature and frankly, beyond an
Extent, no objective proof on ground would have the potential to address these subjective grievances.
Other Parameters:
Newly Industrial Countries:
These are countries that are considered more advanced and developed than those in the developing world, but at the same time are not considered as developed countries. In other words, these countries are considered to be in the intermediate group between Developed nations and Developing nations
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newly_industrialized_country
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Developing_country
Potential Superpowers:
India is also considered as a potential Superpower of the future by many.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers
G8+5:
India is also a member of the G8+5 groups consisting of the heads of governments from the G8 countries and the heads of government of 5 leading emerging countries.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G8%2B5
G20:
India is also a part of the G20. Post the sub prime crisis, G20 replaced the G8 as the main economic forum.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20
Link: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/09/25/2696795.htm
India in IMF:
India’s quota share in IMF is about 2.75% and India ranks in the 8th position among IMF member countries.
Link: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2010-10-24/news/27581312_1_quota-share-quota-reforms-dominique-strauss-kahn
India as a permanent UNSC member:
India is considered as a strong candidate for a permanent seat in a reformed UNSC. India candidature is backed by 4 of the 5 current permanent members in addition to many other countries.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNSC_reform
Growth Markets:
Goldman Sachs Asset Management has introduces the term “Growth Markets” to better describe some of the world’s most Dynamic economies believing that the conventional labels of Developed and Emerging Economies no longer reflect the fundamental nature of Global Economy today . Jim O’Neill, the same economist who coined the BRIC concept heads the Asset Management division at Goldman Sachs and under his leadership the concept of “Growth Market” has been introduced to better reflect the economic ground realities than the conventional and obsolete concepts of Developed or Emerging Markets.
Source: http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/global-economic-outlook/introducing-growth-markets/index.html
Conclusion:
The question of whether India can be a developed nation or not may not appropriately suit the need of the hour. In fact, the entire matter is subjective and so even if we go about setting targets and parameters, achieving the results would be a mundane task as understanding human psychology and inducing perceptions therein is probably one of the most difficult tasks.
Instead of all this, the focus should be on determining India’s place in 2020. Whether India would be among the front league of nations or one of the potential superpowers by then would make more sense and add more meaning to this entire Mission.
And going by the current scenario of economic growth and growing geo political clout, India most certainly has a chance to reserve its place as one of the potential superpowers by 2020.
this is a very good effort.